Monday, January 09, 2006

How low is Bush's estimate of 30,000 Iraqis dead?

In the aftermath of the First Iraqi-American War, the question of the number of Iraqi deaths always fascinated me in the inability of anyone to agree on an actual total. How many fleeing troops were actually massacred on the "Highway of Death" as they attempted to flee Kuwait? The scene in Jarhead where they come upon its re-creation recently reminded me that some estimates were in the 250,000 range.

With the Second Iraqi-American War dragging on through its third year of occupation the answer to the question as to the number of Iraqi civilian deaths proves equally difficult to answer. In the linked article, Andrew Cockburn quotes at length from a statistician, Pierre Sprey, who provides an argument that supports the notion that the number may be as high as 100,000.
Who knew there might be a "tyranny of the Gaussian"?

6 Thoughts:

Blogger Demotiki said...

The Lancet did a very reliable study using epedemiolgical techniques. The randomly sampled the population for evidence of war deaths in their circle of friends and family. This is how they trace the spread of diseases quickly and efficiently without having to find every sick person. It's an established and proven method that has well defined statistical accuracy. Lancet researchers estimated that prior to the Fallujah offensive more than 100,000 civilians had parished as a direct result of American military opporations. Of course that was a long time ago and the civilian bombings were not included.

Read about it here. . .

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3962969.stm

Monday, January 09, 2006 12:58:00 PM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

That link is dead, can you provide a new one?

Tuesday, January 10, 2006 7:54:00 AM  
Blogger pawlr said...

Easy-E? That you?

Tuesday, January 10, 2006 10:35:00 AM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

Sounds like it

Tuesday, January 10, 2006 11:46:00 AM  
Blogger pawlr said...

Great, Doug leaves and Easy-E takes over - this blog is really taking a left turn!

Tuesday, January 10, 2006 5:34:00 PM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

off of a cliff

Tuesday, January 10, 2006 6:31:00 PM  

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