Monday, October 24, 2005

New England: Get Ready for Wilma/Alpha/Nor'easter

It's all gonna mix up (reportedly) in a manner reminiscent of '91's "perfect storm."

The ground is still saturated; flood watches in effect. Winds could gust to 70mph.

Link is to earlier post on Wilma; best source for info still.

Dig this: This is a "floater" enhanced radar loop that will follow (I assume) Wilma up to the Northeast. Replaces number 3 in the original post, linked above.

No point in looking at the Gulf now...

4 Thoughts:

Blogger Demotiki said...

Okay, I know that the data series for hurricane frequency and intensity are not adequite to prove a correlation between global warming and the effects we have been seeing in the gulf. However, you gotta ask yourself . . . can we wait to find out? This is by far the most severe hurricane season in history, and there's still over a month to go. I also suspect that increased surface temperatures in the gulf will lead to a longer season anyway. Evidently we shall have an opportunity to find out since the "conservatives" are hell-bent on this radical experiment in planetary science.

Monday, October 24, 2005 10:25:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Well, no scientist has tied this season or any particular hurricane to global warming. Nor is this the worst season "by far" -- it's the worst "by one" in terms of number of storms. However, by other measures, it's not.

The causation goes: to the extent that global warming is man-made, and to the extent that global warming heats up the oceans, and to the extent that that heating increases the intensity and frequency of hurricanes, global warming is tied to stronger and more numerous hurricanes.

The data looks better when looked at globally, not in the Atlantic. There are cycles, apparently natural, in hurricane-seasons.

I think it's reasonable to say that global warming is playing some role.

What's playing a much larger role is uncontrolled development in hurricane zones. More to destroy.

In any event, we need not tether global warming to the 2005 hurricane season to prove the large human component. Temperature rises with increased fossil fuel consumption, and all models basically agree on that.

Furthermore, since getting off oil is overdetermined, arguing about the exact impact of global warming is a little like arguing over whether a chemical fire will actually burn you to death -- the fumes will get you, anyway.

Monday, October 24, 2005 11:28:00 PM  
Blogger pawlr said...

50mph gusts predicted for NYC tomorrow. From Jeff Masters':

New England
On Tuesday, Wilma will dramatically affect New England's weather. A separate powerful Nor'easter storm will develop next to the coast of New England on Tuesday, and moisture feeding back from Wilma into the Nor'easter will drench much of Rhode Island, southeast Massachusetts, and surrounding areas with 2 - 4 inches of rain. Winds from the combined Nor'easter/Wilma storm will reach sustained levels of 40 - 50 mph over the waters near Cape Cod, and bring wind gusts of 50 mph to New York City, Providence, and Boston. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet with 20 foot waves is expected to cause moderate flooding along the coast of southeast Massachusetts. As Wilma continues northeast on Wednesday, New Brunswick and Newfoundland will experience tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding.

Monday, October 24, 2005 11:49:00 PM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

Doug,

Name a year that was worse for hurricanes. 1933 had fewer and less intense hurricanes. 1950 had strong hurricanes but not as strong as this year and there were fewer of them. Of course we don't have perfect data, but it's pretty safe to say that this season (which isn't finished yet) has been the worst yet.

As for overdetermined, clearly you are correct. We need off oil pronto.

Tuesday, October 25, 2005 12:18:00 AM  

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