Wednesday, September 21, 2005


Click to enlarge...

7 Thoughts:

Blogger Doug said...

That's a scary-looking well-formed eye.

Wednesday, September 21, 2005 10:41:00 PM  
Blogger pawlr said...

Fuck yeah, and it hasn't even hit the "loop current" yet, which is what caused Katrina to strengthen:

From Jeff Master's blog on Weather Underground:

Rita may stall over Texas
Posted By: JeffMasters at 12:54 AM GMT on September 22, 2005
Updated: 12:59 AM GMT on September 22, 2005
The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area. The models are not suggesting this at all, but is also possible that Rita may not make landfall on Saturday as expected, but pull up just short of the Texas coast and pound it for days as it waits for the next trough to pick her up. We'll have to wait for the next set of model runs due out by tomorrow morning to know better.

The 7:09 pm eye report from the hurricane hunters found a 904 mb pressure and flight level winds of 161 knots (186 mph). This pressure makes Rita the 3rd strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time. Tonight, Rita will be passing over the Loop Current, a warm eddy of water in the Gulf that aided Katrina's growth to a Category 5 hurricane. Fueled by this pool of deep warm water and an almost ideal upper level wind environment, Rita should continue to intensify until Thursday morning, when she will pass beyond the Loop Current. The eye has shrunk to 20 nm diameter from 25 nm earlier this afternoon. By the time the eye shrinks down to 10 nm, the eyewall will collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle begin, putting an end to this intensification cycle. With potentially another 12 hours to go before this happens, Rita could challenge Gilbert's 888 mb pressure record.

The list of strongest hurricanes of all time now reads:

Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb, 1988)

The Great Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb, 1935)

Hurricane Rita (898 mb, 2005)

Hurricane Allen (899 mb, 1980)

Hurricane Katrina (902 mb, 2005)

Hurricane Camille (905 mb, 1969)

I expect to rewrite this list when the next reconnaissance aircraft reaches Rita about 9pm tonight. How low can Rita go?

Jeff Masters

Wednesday, September 21, 2005 10:43:00 PM  
Blogger pawlr said...

Check out the Rig Map. May want to get in on those futures if its not too late..

Wednesday, September 21, 2005 10:49:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Oh, we must profit from this, no doubt! Good info, dude.

Wednesday, September 21, 2005 10:53:00 PM  
Blogger pawlr said...

Note the large cluster of fixed rigs (the gray dots) along the right side of the projected path.. not a good sign for gas prices.

Wednesday, September 21, 2005 10:55:00 PM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

Buy a bike and take mass transit, gas prices will be above $4 a gal. and probably over $5 in the near future. Whatever refinery capacity that escaped Katrina will be down for at least two weeks after Rita.

How many times does one have to hear, "Rita is strengthened by warm waters in the Gulf" to realize that "warm waters in the Gulf" matter. Is this how the world ends, half the people know the problem and know the solution, and half the people are too lazy or irresponsible to solve the problem? The fuckin' Dems. need to talk Global Warming at every opportunity. It's clearly the most important issue the world has ever faced, and it requires lots of planning ahead of time and international cooperation.

When the weather is unseasonably warm, talk about Global Warming, when storms are strong, talk about Global Warming. We have to help people to make the connections and to overcome the propaganda from Bid Oil.

Wednesday, September 21, 2005 11:59:00 PM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

Q. What does Karl Rove have in common with Hurricane Rita?

A. The are both driven by gusts of hot air.

Thursday, September 22, 2005 8:38:00 AM  

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