Friday, August 12, 2005

You Heard it Here First

Here's what's going to happen. Shiite Iraq and Kurdish Iraq will split off, as seems likelier by the day. Sunni Iraq will be a third area, whether this is official or not. The US will have to withdraw by the 2006 elections, or the GOP is screwed. Thus, they will.

In other words, civil war. Then, Iran, who has played this beautifully, will "invade" the Shiite region, claiming "pre-emptive" reasons which the Bush admin won't be able to argue against. Furthermore, if a non-WMD-ed Saddam was a clear and present danger for us here in the US, then a civil war on its borders should count for Iran, I should think.

Damn, they are stupid, those neocons.

8 Thoughts:

Blogger Demotiki said...

Doug,

I have heard this scenerio before. However, don't forget that there are other powers out there. The Shites control too much oil for any of the major powers to let them take over Iraq's Shite oil. I also don't think civil war is very likely unless something changes dramatically. However, it could happen.

I think the main point here is that nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen. Nation building is a fool's errand in a multiethnic state like Iraq.

Friday, August 12, 2005 4:14:00 PM  
Blogger pawlr said...

Well, I think the real problem is the liberal U.S. media, which never reports any of the good stuff going on over there, like painting schools!!!

Friday, August 12, 2005 7:13:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Looks like civil war is happening right now to me.

Saturday, August 13, 2005 6:28:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Andrew, why are you letting the terrorists win?

Saturday, August 13, 2005 8:38:00 AM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Saturday, August 13, 2005 8:28:00 PM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

It's not a civil war. Just because there is some sectarian violence, it doesn't mean the nation is in a civil war. What is the name of the Shite army, or the state that they claim to institute. Of the factions, the Kurds are most likely to argue for partitioning. Unfortunately, they will never be able to do so, Turkey objects. The Sunni can't argue for ethnic partitioning because they don't have any oil. The Shites are equally dissatisfied with a partitioning because they don't want to lose any oil to a Kerdish state. Sistani and others know that the Shite majority will dominate and be able to get the biggest slice of the oil pie. So who benefits from a civil war? Nobody. Nobody makes $$$, no war. It's just that simple. Mutual hatred between the ethnic groups is not a sufficient force on its own to create the conditions for civil war. Many of the acts proponents of this theory put forward as evidence of sectarian strife, are actually efforts by foreign fighters who hope to spark civil war by creating counterfit sectarian violence.

The real problem in Iraq is the American occupation. The situation is so similar to Vietnam. The US is spending tons of $$ in Iraq. As a result, an elite class of Iraqi war profiteers has been created, just as a similar class grew in Saigon. These elites are doing everything they can to poorly administer their country so that they can profit from corruption and the continued influx of US$. If the troops come home, these folks lose their source of income. If we try to go around them, we move backward. We are stuck in a slow expensive slog, that's not likely to ever change. The war will continue until all parties making $ from it have enough, or the American people decide it's too expensive. When this happens, the elite will flee Iraq for California and the country will be run by a ruthless dictator supported by American guns and money. Look around the globe, it always works out this way for us in the 3rd world.

Andrew

Sunday, August 14, 2005 8:30:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

You just hate America.

Sunday, August 14, 2005 8:52:00 AM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

Doug,

No, I don't JUST hate America. There are many other things I hate.

Andrew

Thursday, August 18, 2005 11:42:00 PM  

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