Wednesday, August 17, 2005

Buyer's Remorse: Does It Matter?

The Latest Polls:

Survey USA (check out the Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky!)
Rasmussen (and this is a Repub outfit).

The real question is whether it matters that Bush's numbers are cratering - after all, the election's over. Good prospects for 2006, yes. However, its hard for me to see how front-runner Clinton's (Hillary) nomination in 2008 will help Dems retake the White House. Especially if McCain overcomes "the Base" (see Arabic translation) and gets to run against her.

Hillary is a lightning rod for true liberals (who rightfully distrust her) and she is, of course, the bete noire of the RWNM.

Maybe the Progressive Democrats should take up a collection and just bribe the DLC (Democratic Losing Committee) to spare us their "me-too" platform (send more troops!! yeah!) and leave politics to people who want to provide real alternatives to Republican madness.

9 Thoughts:

Blogger pawlr said...

Also, check out the level of detail available on the Survey USA site, if you click through the links after each state you can then see the demographic breakdown within each state... for example, check out the movement in the last month among Alabama Hispanics. How many military bases in Alabama? How many Hispanic military?

Wednesday, August 17, 2005 12:53:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Very informative post. I now know that Bush's stronghold is in the Western states, not necessarily in the South. Interesting!

Wednesday, August 17, 2005 1:17:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

These numbers look awful for Bush. I'm almost hopeful.

Wednesday, August 17, 2005 1:17:00 PM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

The Southwest is the place where we will send them packing. That's why we need to be Ed Shultz Democrats. Let everyone have a gun, a gun-rack and a passion for protecting the environment.

Bill Richardson would be the best choice for President. By taking in New Mexico, Arizona, Utah and Nevada, he'd establish the Democrats as a national party and the Republicans as a "Southeastern" party.

I am very optimistic about 2006, but I want to see a whole lot more movement on getting rid of electronic voting. I used to like the idea, but now it's clear that paper ballot works great and that it is far more difficult to cheat when there's a paper-trail.

Andrew

Wednesday, August 17, 2005 4:33:00 PM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

I find it interesting that there seems to be a great deal of "resistance" as we approach 40% approval. Could it be that this 40% is the "diehard Republican" base we hear so much about. I suspect that if and when we get to a 30% approval, all hell will break lose. So much of the Republican identity is based on being "the majority." If it becomes any clearer that the majority is against this president, it might push some over the line.

Thursday, August 18, 2005 12:56:00 AM  
Blogger GodlessMom said...

It seems to me that there is a lot of promise in the Southwest but Utah will always vote for the established Republican candidate. The LDS church tells them to vote Republican and they do...Not enough independent thought there to spark change.

Boy, I'm sounding a little evil today. :)

Thursday, August 18, 2005 9:18:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Nah, GM...I've heard that from a couple of ex-Mormons...but we can do without Utah! (Electorally speaking; I'm sure it's a lovely state.)

Thursday, August 18, 2005 10:35:00 AM  
Blogger pawlr said...

Surprisingly, I'm not sure about that 40% hard threshhold... take a look at Ras' breakdown (43/56 for the second straight day)

Strongly Approve: 21%
Somewhat Approve: 22%
Somewhat Disapprove: 16%
Strongly Disapprove: 40%

The real threshhold I think is actually 30%, considering that 22% only "somewhat approve".

Thursday, August 18, 2005 10:40:00 AM  
Blogger Demotiki said...

Paul,

I stand corrected, I saw some daily tracking polls today and it does seem like his base is smaller. We have to remember that Carter was elected with the born-again vote. They were less angry and more Christian back then, but . . .

What I was trying to say is that the slope of his falling approval has a cusp at some "tipping" point. It will be hard to break through this resistance point, but once it happens the trend down will speed up. Maybe it was 40%, let's wait to see how fast it starts sinking now. I suspect it will closely parallel the declining support for the war. After all, Bush is the "War" president. As goes the war, so goes Bush.

Thursday, August 18, 2005 11:34:00 AM  

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